NBA Picks for Thursday, January 1, 2026: Naji Marshall Points & Cooper Flagg Blocks Props to Target
Thursday, January 1, 2026, brings exciting NBA action, including a key matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers. With NBA player props offering prime betting picks, we're targeting two strong opportunities from the Mavericks' side. Naji Marshall's points over 12.5 and Cooper Flagg's blocks over 0.5 stand out based on recent trends and matchup edges.
Naji Marshall - POINTS OVER 12.5
Naji Marshall has been on a tear scoring-wise, clearing 12.5 points at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, an elite 90% in the last 10, and a solid 75% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Marshall's consistency as a scoring wing for Dallas is evident in his elevated usage during recent losses, averaging 14.2 points per game over the last 10 while logging 32+ minutes nightly. His shot volume has increased with key Mavericks sidelined, making this prop highly reliable against a Philly defense vulnerable to perimeter scoring.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with 15+ points in four straight before a minor dip.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), thriving in expanded role amid team struggles.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), proving long-term reliability as a double-digit scorer.
"The Sacramento Kings defeated the Mavericks 113-107 at the Golden 1 Center. Sacramento improved to 8-23... while Dallas fell to 12-21 and lost two games in a row."
Matchup Analysis
Philadelphia ranks in the bottom half defensively against small forwards, allowing opponents to exceed 13.5 points per game from that position. With no H2H data available, Marshall's recent form exploits Philly's perimeter lapses, where they've surrendered 25+ points to wings in 70% of games.
Dallas enters on a two-game skid after losses to Sacramento and Golden State, pushing coaches to lean on Marshall for scoring punch in a projected high-total game around 225 points. His minutes should climb against a Sixers squad dealing with frontcourt issues.
This prop is a lock based on Marshall's scorching trends and favorable matchup context.
Cooper Flagg
DAL vs PHI
Cooper Flagg - BLOCKS OVER 0.5
Cooper Flagg, the rookie phenom, has dominated at the rim, clearing 0.5 blocks at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 65% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Flagg's length and instincts have shone through, averaging 1.4 blocks over the last 10 games while playing 28+ minutes as Dallas' defensive anchor. His rejection rate spikes in high-pace games, positioning this prop for success against Philly's aggressive interior attacks.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), swatting 2+ shots in three of those outings.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), consistent despite rookie adjustment period.
- L20 games: 65% success (13/20), building reliability as a rim protector.
"In a game where Golden State Warriors All-Star Stephen Curry reached his 26,000-point career milestone in a 126-116 Christmas Day win against the Dallas Mavericks, rookie Cooper Flagg made quite the first impression."
Matchup Analysis
The 76ers drive frequently, ranking top-5 in paint attempts, but struggle containing mobile bigs, allowing 1.2 blocks per game to opposing forwards. No H2H data exists, yet Flagg's athleticism matches up perfectly against Philly's 45% rim finish rate vulnerability.
Coming off back-to-back defeats—including a 126-116 loss to Golden State—Dallas needs Flagg's defense to spark a turnaround in this elevated-pace affair projected over 220 points. His role expands with the team's 12-21 record demanding shot-altering presence.
This prop is a lock based on Flagg's defensive surge and Philly's exploitable tendencies.
Naji Marshall
DAL vs PHI