NBA Picks for Sunday, January 4, 2026: Aaron Gordon Points + Rebounds, Michael Porter Jr. Threes Props to Target
Sunday, January 4, 2026, brings a loaded NBA slate packed with betting opportunities, including the high-scoring potential in Denver Nuggets vs. Brooklyn Nets. For savvy bettors targeting NBA player props, Aaron Gordon's points + rebounds over 17.5 stands out as a prime play alongside Michael Porter Jr.'s threes over 3.5 in this intruiging matchup.
Aaron Gordon - POINTS_REBOUNDS OVER 17.5
Aaron Gordon has been a consistent force for the Nuggets, clearing 17.5 points + rebounds at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 85% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Gordon's reliability shines through his elevated role alongside Nikola Jokic, where he's averaging 13.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game over the last 20 outings, pushing his combined total well above the line in most contests. His minutes have stabilized around 34 per game, giving him ample opportunity to rack up boards against weaker frontcourts.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with 14+ points and 7 rebounds in four straight before a minor dip.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), bolstered by increased usage amid Jokic's playmaking.
- L20 games: 85% success (17/20), proving long-term reliability even in tough matchups.
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Matchup Analysis
The Nets rank in the bottom 5 for points allowed to power forwards, surrendering 20.1 points + rebounds per game to the position, with no head-to-head data available this season. Brooklyn's frontcourt struggles create ideal conditions for Gordon to exploit transition and second-chance opportunities.
Denver enters with strong momentum in a projected total over 225 points, fueled by the Nuggets' efficient offense amid a busy regular season schedule. Coaching adjustments have emphasized Gordon's versatility, enhancing his stat-stuffing potential.
This prop is a lock based on Gordon's trends, role, and favorable Nets matchup.
Aaron Gordon
DEN vs BKN
Michael Porter Jr. - THREES OVER 3.5
Michael Porter Jr. is lighting it up from deep for Brooklyn, clearing 3.5 threes at a perfect 100% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Porter Jr. has embraced a high-volume shooting role, averaging 4.8 threes made on 10.2 attempts over his last 20 games at a scorching 42% clip. His green light from the coaching staff ensures consistent volume, making this prop highly hittable.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), draining 5+ threes each time with volume spiking.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), maintaining elite efficiency despite defensive focus.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), with upticks in attempts solidifying his sniper status.
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Matchup Analysis
Denver's perimeter defense ranks middle-of-the-pack, allowing opponents to hit 14.2 threes per game at 37%, with no H2H data this year. The Nuggets' aggressive closeouts leave shooters like Porter Jr. open on kickouts and spot-ups.
Brooklyn's attack thrives in fast-paced games like this one, projected over 225 points, with Porter Jr. benefiting from increased minutes amid recent rotations. The Nets' momentum against top teams amplifies his deep-ball opportunities.
Porter Jr. over 3.5 threes is primed to cash given his hot streak and Denver's vulnerabilities.
Michael Porter Jr.
BKN vs DEN