NBA Picks for Tuesday, January 6, 2026: Tyler Herro Points + Rebounds + Assists & Points Props to Target
It's Tuesday, January 6, 2026, and NBA betting fans have prime player prop opportunities with the Miami Heat taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Amid a loaded slate, we're zeroing in on Tyler Herro's standout props: Points + Rebounds + Assists OVER 23.5 and Points OVER 16.5. Both lines boast perfect hit rates across recent games, making them can't-miss NBA player props for savvy bettors.
Tyler Herro - POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS OVER 23.5
Tyler Herro has been a model of consistency for the Heat, clearing 23.5 points + rebounds + assists at a 100% clip over his last 5 games, 100% in the last 10, and 100% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Herro's expanded role has fueled his production, averaging 18.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists over his last 20 games for a robust 27.7 PRA clip. His usage rate sits at 28.5%, ensuring high-volume opportunities every night, with minimal variance in minutes at 35.2 per game.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with 29.2 PRA average including three double-digit assist outings.
- L10 games: 100% hit rate (10/10), maintaining starter minutes amid lineup tweaks for sustained efficiency.
- L20 games: 100% success (20/20), underscoring long-term reliability as Miami's go-to guard.
“As the Miami Heat have been trending upwards after upsetting the Detroit Pistons on Thursday, it’s the result of an immense collective effort from the starting lineup to the bench unit.”
Matchup Analysis
The Timberwolves present a favorable spot, allowing 25.1 PRA to opposing shooting guards this season with no prior H2H data against Herro to suggest otherwise. Minnesota's perimeter defense ranks 12th but struggles against high-usage creators, yielding 8.2 assists per game to SGs.
With the Heat riding a four-game winning streak into this clash (19-15 record), expect an up-tempo game where Miami pushes the pace. Erik Spoelstra's praise for the bench highlights team momentum, boosting Herro's scoring load against a Wolves squad distracted by Anthony Edwards' off-court narrative.
This prop is a lock based on Herro's scorching trends and the matchup context.
Tyler Herro
MIA vs MIN
Tyler Herro - POINTS OVER 16.5
Tyler Herro's scoring surge has been unstoppable, eclipsing 16.5 points at a 100% clip over his last 5 games, 100% in the last 10, and 100% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Herro is pouring in 19.8 points per game over his last 20, shooting 47.2% from the field and 39.1% from three on 7.4 attempts. His shot volume has climbed with Miami leaning on his mid-range mastery and transition buckets.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), averaging 22.6 points with four 20+ scoring nights.
- L10 games: 100% hit rate (10/10), thriving in pick-and-roll sets for consistent 18+ outputs.
- L20 games: 100% success (20/20), cementing him as a scoring mainstay regardless of matchups.
“The Miami Heat (19-15) bring a four-game winning streak into Saturday night’s matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves (21-13).”
Matchup Analysis
Minnesota's backcourt defense concedes 19.4 points per game to shooting guards, with no H2H history to deter Herro. The Wolves' aggressive trapping leaves shooters open, aligning perfectly with Herro's off-ball movement.
Heat momentum is peaking, with Spoelstra noting collective contributions that amplify starters like Herro. Facing a Timberwolves team fixated on Anthony Edwards (leading scorer at 29.1 PPG), Miami's offense should feast in a projected high-total game.
Herro's points prop is primed to cash with overwhelming evidence on his side.
Tyler Herro
MIA vs MIN