NBA Picks for Thursday, January 8, 2026: Donovan Mitchell Assists & Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Props to Target
Thursday, January 8, 2026, features a loaded NBA slate packed with prime betting opportunities in player props. We're honing in on Donovan Mitchell's assists OVER 4.5 as the Cavaliers face the Timberwolves and Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s points OVER 13.5 when the Heat take on the Bulls. These NBA player props highlight scorching recent trends and exploitable matchups for sharp bettors.
Donovan Mitchell - ASSISTS OVER 4.5
Donovan Mitchell has elevated his playmaking for Cleveland, clearing the 4.5 assists line at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 80% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Mitchell's assist numbers have surged with increased ball-handling duties, averaging 6.1 assists per game over his last 10 outings while maintaining 37.2 minutes on the floor. His consistency shines in high-usage spots, where he's connected with shooters on 42% of his drives, boosting secondary creation.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with 5.9 assists average and multiple games exceeding 7 assists amid Cleveland's fast-paced offense.
- L10 games: 80% hit rate (8/10), showing role stability post-injury returns with elevated pick-and-roll usage.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), underscoring long-term reliability even against tougher defenses.
"Russell Westbrook scored 21 points and moved past Magic Johnson for seventh place on the NBA’s career assists list while leading the Sacramento Kings to a 113-107 win over the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday."
Matchup Analysis
The Timberwolves rank in the bottom 12 for assists allowed to opposing shooting guards, yielding 5.8 assists per game to the position due to aggressive help defense that leaves shooters open. No H2H data exists, but Minnesota's perimeter focus plays into Mitchell's vision.
Cleveland enters with momentum from recent wins, projecting a total around 225 points in a game favoring transition plays where Mitchell thrives. Coaching adjustments have emphasized his distribution against switch-heavy schemes like Minnesota's.
This prop is a lock based on Mitchell's trends, volume, and the Wolves' defensive gaps.
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
MIA vs CHI
Jaime Jaquez Jr. - POINTS OVER 13.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. is heating up offensively for Miami, surpassing the 13.5 points mark at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 80% in the last 10, and 55% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Jaquez's scoring has spiked with expanded minutes, posting 16.4 points per game in his last 10 while shooting 48% from the field on increased isolation calls. His efficiency in spot-up and cut scenarios has made him a reliable secondary option.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), averaging 17.2 points on 35 minutes with multiple 20-point outbursts.
- L10 games: 80% hit rate (8/10), reflecting consistent shot volume amid Miami's balanced attack.
- L20 games: 55% success (11/20), building reliability despite occasional blowouts limiting minutes.
"Anthony Black scored a career-high 38 points, Desmond Bane tallied 24 including two free throws with 6.9 seconds left, and the host Orlando Magic beat the Denver Nuggets 127-126 on Saturday night."
Matchup Analysis
Chicago's wing defense sits outside the top 15, allowing 15.2 points per game to small forwards like Jaquez, vulnerable to drives and mid-range pull-ups. With no H2H data, the Bulls' slower pace still exposes gaps in rotation coverage.
Miami's recent form suggests a gritty, high-scoring affair projected over 220 points, where Jaquez feasts in crunch time. News on emerging minutes distributions favors his expanded role against fatigued Chicago forwards.
Jaquez clears this points prop with ease given his streak and the matchup edge.
Donovan Mitchell
CLE vs MIN