NBA Picks for Friday, January 16, 2026: Domantas Sabonis POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS & Matas Buzelis ASSISTS Props to Target
Friday, January 16, 2026, brings a packed NBA slate loaded with prime betting opportunities in player props. We're zeroing in on two high-confidence NBA player props: Domantas Sabonis to go OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists against the Wizards and Matas Buzelis to clear 1.5 assists versus the Nets. These picks stand out due to scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchups in the dog days of the season.
Domantas Sabonis - POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS OVER 25.5
Domantas Sabonis continues to anchor the Kings' offense with his all-around dominance, clearing 25.5 points + rebounds + assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 82% across the last 20. His triple-double threat production makes this line look soft against a vulnerable Washington defense.
The Statistical Edge
Sabonis has been a picture of reliability, posting triple-doubles in three of his last five outings while averaging 28.4 PRA over that stretch. His usage remains sky-high at 32 minutes per game lately, fueling consistent outputs even as the Kings navigate a grueling schedule.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with 29.2 PRA average including two triple-doubles.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), showcasing unwavering consistency amid minor lineup tweaks.
- L20 games: 82% success (16/20), underscoring his long-term reliability as Sacramento's offensive hub.
"We have moved into the dog days of the season, which can lead to strange results as players grow tired and start looking ahead to the All-Star break."
Matchup Analysis
The Wizards rank in the bottom five for PRA allowed to opposing power forwards, surrendering 28.7 PRA per game to the position with weak interior defense. No H2H data exists, but Washington's porous frontcourt plays right into Sabonis's rebounding and passing prowess.
Sacramento enters with momentum from a recent four-of-five win streak, while trade deadline buzz adds urgency to key players like Sabonis stepping up. Expect a high-paced game with a projected total over 225 points, boosting assist and rebound chances.
This prop is a lock based on Sabonis's trends and the Wizards' defensive lapses.
Domantas Sabonis
SAC vs WAS
Matas Buzelis - ASSISTS OVER 1.5
Matas Buzelis is emerging as a key facilitator for the Bulls, clearing 1.5 assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 60% across the last 20. The young wing's growing playmaking role makes this a sharp NBA player props target tonight.
The Statistical Edge
Buzelis has ramped up his ball-handling duties, averaging 2.8 assists over his last 10 games while logging 26.4 minutes per contest. His improved vision and off-ball movement have translated to reliable dimes even in tighter defensive schemes.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), dishing 3.0 assists per game with increased pick-and-roll usage.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), reflecting a solidified role in Chicago's second unit.
- L20 games: 60% success (12/20), building long-term reliability as he adapts to NBA speed.
"NBA Power Rankings: All 30 teams' most exciting young rising player: The NBA regular season is in full swing..."
Matchup Analysis
Brooklyn ranks bottom-10 in assists allowed to small forwards, giving up 2.4 assists per matchup due to aggressive help defense that opens driving lanes. No H2H data, but the Nets' perimeter vulnerabilities favor Buzelis's slashing and kickout style.
The Bulls are surging amid East contention, with coaching adjustments emphasizing youth involvement ahead of the Feb. 5 trade deadline. A fast-paced tilt projected at 228.5 total points should create ample assist opportunities for Buzelis.
Buzelis clears this line with ease given his hot streak and Brooklyn's weaknesses.
Matas Buzelis
CHI vs BKN