NBA Picks for Saturday, January 17, 2026: Norman Powell Over 20.5 Points, Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 2.5 Assists Props to Target
Saturday, January 17, 2026, brings a loaded NBA slate packed with prime betting opportunities in player props. We're targeting Norman Powell's points over 20.5 against the Thunder and Nickeil Alexander-Walker's assists over 2.5 versus the Celtics as our top NBA player props picks. These selections stand out based on scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchups.
Norman Powell - POINTS OVER 20.5
Norman Powell has been on fire scoring-wise for the Heat, clearing 20.5 points at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Powell's scoring consistency has elevated Miami's offense, averaging 24.8 points per game over his last 10 outings while logging 34.2 minutes nightly. His efficiency from deep and at the rim has made him a reliable volume shooter, especially in up-tempo games where he thrives on transition buckets.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with 25.6 points average including back-to-back 28-point explosions.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), showcasing role expansion with increased usage amid Miami's injury adjustments.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), proving long-term reliability even against tougher defenses.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 15 of his 34 points in the third quarter to help Oklahoma City earn a 119-98 home win over San Antonio on Tuesday, the Thunder's first victory in four matchups with the Spurs this season.
Matchup Analysis
The Thunder rank 22nd in points allowed to shooting guards, yielding 24.1 points per game to the position while struggling to contain perimeter scoring in recent outings. No H2H data exists yet this season, but OKC's aggressive trapping leaves shooters like Powell open on kickouts.
Oklahoma City enters on a high after their dominant 119-98 rout of San Antonio, but their fast pace (102.3 possessions) favors Powell's transition game. Miami's back-to-back could inflate OKC's minutes for bench sparks like Powell.
This prop is a lock based on Powell's trends, volume, and OKC's defensive gaps.
Norman Powell
MIA vs OKC
Nickeil Alexander-Walker - ASSISTS OVER 2.5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has emerged as a playmaking threat for Atlanta, surpassing 2.5 assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 65% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Alexander-Walker's assist numbers have surged with expanded ball-handling duties, posting 3.8 assists average in his last 10 while playing 28.7 minutes. His vision in pick-and-roll sets has unlocked Atlanta's motion offense effectively.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), dishing 4.2 assists average with perfect execution in half-court sets.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), boosted by secondary creator role amid Trae Young's load management.
- L20 games: 65% success (13/20), highlighting growing reliability in high-leverage minutes.
Scottie Barnes made the game-winning free throw in the final second of overtime to help the Toronto Raptors defeat visiting the Philadelphia 76ers 116-115 on Sunday in the first game of a back-to-back between the teams.
Matchup Analysis
Boston ranks 18th in assists allowed to combo guards, giving up 3.4 assists per matchup due to over-helping on drives. No H2H data this year, but the Celtics' switch-heavy scheme creates passing lanes for Alexander-Walker.
Atlanta faces a shorthanded Boston squad potentially low on depth, projecting a total over 225.5 points in a track meet. Alexander-Walker's recent insertion into closing lineups amplifies his facilitation edge.
This prop is primed to cash given his hot streak and Boston's vulnerabilities.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
ATL vs BOS