NBA Picks for Monday, February 9, 2026: Jaren Jackson Jr. Points + Rebounds, Kevin Porter Jr. Rebounds + Assists Props to Target
Monday, February 9, 2026, brings a packed NBA slate ripe for player prop betting opportunities ahead of Thursday's trade deadline. With teams jockeying for position amid swirling rumors like James Harden's move to the Cavaliers, we're targeting two high-confidence NBA player props: Jaren Jackson Jr.'s points + rebounds over 21.5 for Utah against Miami, and Kevin Porter Jr.'s rebounds + assists over 11.5 for Milwaukee versus Orlando.
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Points + Rebounds Over 21.5
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a rebounding and scoring machine lately for the Jazz, consistently clearing 21.5 points + rebounds at a 100% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 85% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Jackson Jr. boasts elite athleticism and usage in Utah's frontcourt, averaging 24.2 points + rebounds over his last 10 outings while logging 34+ minutes per game. His consistency shines through in high-pace games, where he exploits mismatches for putbacks and transition scores, making this prop a reliable bet regardless of Utah's overall output.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with four straight double-doubles including 26 points + 12 rebounds in his most recent outing.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), maintaining his role as the primary rebounder even amid minor lineup tweaks.
- L20 games: 85% success (17/20), underscoring long-term reliability in various defensive schemes.
"The 2026 NBA trade deadline (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET) is one day away, with a flurry of blockbuster deals already beginning..."
Matchup Analysis
Miami ranks in the bottom 10 for opponent points in the paint allowed, vulnerable to athletic bigs like Jackson Jr. who thrive on second-chance opportunities. No H2H data available this season, but the Heat's 26th-ranked defensive rebounding percentage plays right into his strengths, projecting him for ample volume.
With the trade deadline looming, Utah faces a Miami squad potentially distracted by roster flux, pushing a game total around 225 points and favoring Jackson Jr.'s stat-stuffing minutes. His expanded role post-trade rumors solidifies the edge here.
This prop is a lock based on trends and matchup advantages.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
UTA vs MIA
Kevin Porter Jr. - Rebounds + Assists Over 11.5
Kevin Porter Jr. is facilitating and crashing the glass effectively for Milwaukee, hitting 11.5 rebounds + assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 80% in the last 10, and 70% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Porter Jr. has carved out a key bench sparkplug role, averaging 6.8 rebounds + 6.2 assists recently while playing 28 minutes per game in Milwaukee's motion offense. His playmaking surges in up-tempo sets, pairing well with his nose for loose balls to push this combo stat consistently higher.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), highlighted by a 7 rebounds + 8 assists explosion off the bench last time out.
- L10 games: 80% hit rate (8/10), thriving with increased ball-handling duties amid backcourt rotations.
- L20 games: 70% success (14/20), proving dependable even through minor injury hiccups.
"The 2026 NBA trade deadline (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET) is one day away, with a flurry of blockbuster deals already beginning..."
Matchup Analysis
Orlando sits 20th in opponent assists allowed to guards, often leaving second-unit players like Porter Jr. free for kickouts and offensive boards. No H2H data this year, but the Magic's perimeter defense ranks poorly at 22nd in rebounding chances conceded, ideal for his combo prop.
Milwaukee rides momentum into a favorable spot versus an Orlando team slipping in recent power rankings, with a projected total near 228 points boosting transition plays where Porter Jr. excels in assists and boards.
This prop stands out as a strong play given his hot streak and exploitable matchup.
Kevin Porter Jr.
MIL vs ORL