NBA Picks for Thursday, February 26, 2026: LeBron James Points + Assists & Davion Mitchell Threes Props to Target

LeBron James - POINTS + ASSISTS OVER 24.5

LeBron James has been dominating with his scoring and playmaking, clearing 24.5 points + assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 85% across the last 20.

The Statistical Edge

James continues to showcase elite efficiency in his all-around production, averaging north of 27 points + assists per game recently while logging heavy minutes as the Lakers' primary offensive engine. His consistency stems from high usage rates and improved supporting cast, making this prop a reliable staple in his stat line amid Los Angeles' push for playoff positioning.

• L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with averages of 28.6 points + assists including two double-doubles.
• L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), bolstered by increased assist numbers from better ball movement.
• L20 games: 85% success (17/20), proving long-term reliability even in tougher defensive schemes.

Matchup Analysis

The Suns rank in the bottom half of the league defending points + assists from opposing stars, allowing 25.8 per game to forwards, and LeBron has hit this prop in 67% of their 3 head-to-head games. Phoenix's perimeter defense struggles without optimal health, giving James ample lanes for drives and kick-outs.

Lakers enter with momentum from a balanced attack, projecting a total around 225 points in this high-scoring affair. LeBron's veteran savvy exploits Phoenix's transition weaknesses perfectly.

This prop is a lock based on trends, volume, and Suns vulnerabilities.

Davion Mitchell - THREES OVER 0.5

Davion Mitchell is heating up from beyond the arc, clearing 0.5 threes at a perfect 100% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20.

The Statistical Edge

Mitchell's sharpshooting has elevated his role off the Heat bench, hitting 1.8 threes per game lately on 42% efficiency from deep with increased attempts in Erik Spoelstra's fluid rotations. His quick release and spot-up opportunities align with Miami's spacing emphasis.

• L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), draining at least one three in every outing with 2.2 makes average.
• L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), reflecting expanded green light amid lineup tweaks.
• L20 games: 75% success (15/20), highlighting steady growth as a reliable shooter.

"Spoelstra maximizes toy chest in another Heat victory" — Winderman’s view on Miami’s depth utilization.

Matchup Analysis

The 76ers allow the fourth-most made threes to opposing guards, surrendering 14.2 per game, with no H2H data but Philly's on-ball focus leaving shooters open. Mitchell thrives against switch-heavy schemes like Philadelphia's.

Heat ride a hot streak post-Grizzlies rout, with Spoelstra unlocking bench production in a projected 218-point total game. Miami's pace favors Mitchell's catch-and-shoot volume.

This prop is a lock based on trends and context.