NBA Picks for Friday, March 13, 2026: Reed Sheppard Rebounds, Jaylen Wells Threes Props to Target
Friday, March 13, 2026, brings a packed NBA slate loaded with prime betting opportunities in player props. As teams push hard post-All-Star break with the postseason race intensifying, we're targeting two standout NBA player props: Reed Sheppard OVER 2.5 rebounds for Houston against New Orleans and Jaylen Wells OVER 1.5 threes for Memphis versus Detroit. These picks are backed by scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchups.
Reed Sheppard - REBOUNDS OVER 2.5
Reed Sheppard has been a rebounding machine lately, consistently clearing 2.5 rebounds at an impressive 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 65% across the last 20. The rookie guard's role in Houston's rotation has expanded, leading to more opportunities on the glass.
The Statistical Edge
Sheppard's rebounding surge aligns perfectly with increased minutes and a focus on second-chance opportunities, averaging 3.2 rebounds per game over his last 10 outings while playing 24+ minutes consistently. His efficiency on the offensive glass, grabbing 1.1 offensive boards lately, makes this prop a reliable bet against a Pelicans team vulnerable to guard rebounding.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with multiple games of 4+ rebounds amid Houston's fast-paced style.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), showing heightened consistency as his role stabilizes post-All-Star.
- L20 games: 65% success (13/20), proving long-term reliability even through slumps.
"The NBA All-Star break is behind us, and teams are back to work with a little under two months left in the regular season."
Matchup Analysis
New Orleans ranks in the bottom 10 for opponent guard rebounds allowed, yielding 4.2 per game to the position, which plays right into Sheppard's strengths. In 2 head-to-head games vs the Pelicans, he's hit this prop at a perfect 100% rate, exploiting their weak interior presence.
Houston enters with momentum from recent power rankings discussions, aiming to climb the West standings in a game projected for a high 225+ total points. Sheppard's minutes should exceed 25 against a shorthanded NOP frontcourt.
This prop is a lock based on trends, H2H dominance, and matchup edges.
Reed Sheppard
HOU vs NOP
Jaylen Wells - THREES OVER 1.5
Jaylen Wells is draining threes at an elite clip, clearing 1.5 threes at a perfect 100% rate over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 80% across the last 20. His shooting volume has ramped up in Memphis' spacing-heavy offense.
The Statistical Edge
Wells boasts a scorching 42.5% three-point percentage over his last 10 games, attempting 5.1 threes per game while logging 28 minutes nightly. This hot streak reflects better ball movement and his role as a catch-and-shoot specialist, making the over a strong play.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), burying 3+ threes in each with volume spiking.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), maintaining volume despite minor role fluctuations.
- L20 games: 80% success (16/20), underscoring his reliability as a long-range threat.
"The race for the postseason is heating up in the East and the West, as the b..."
Matchup Analysis
Detroit's perimeter defense leaks like a sieve, allowing opponents to hit 14.8 threes per game at 38% clip, one of the league's worst marks. With no H2H data, Wells still thrives against similar defenses, feasting on open looks from Memphis' drives.
The Grizzlies are surging per post-All-Star power rankings, with a projected total around 230 points favoring pace and shots. Wells' green light from coaching staff ensures 5+ attempts in this spot.
This prop screams value with his heater and Detroit's woes—hammer the over.
Jaylen Wells
MEM vs DET