NBA Picks for Sunday, December 28, 2025: RJ Barrett Points & Threes Props to Target
Sunday, December 28, 2025, features a packed NBA slate, headlined by the Toronto Raptors facing the Golden State Warriors. Bettors hunting value in NBA player props should zero in on RJ Barrett, who presents two elite opportunities: points over 13.5 and threes over 1.5.
These picks leverage Barrett's scorching recent form against a favorable matchup, offering strong edges for today's betting action.
RJ Barrett - POINTS OVER 13.5
RJ Barrett has been a scoring machine lately, clearing 13.5 points at a perfect 100% clip over his last 5 games, 80% in the last 10, and 82% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Barrett's scoring consistency stems from increased usage and minutes in Toronto's offense, where he's averaging 17.8 points over his last 10 outings on 22.4 shots per game. His efficiency from the field sits at 48%, bolstered by drives to the rim that exploit slower defenders.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with Barrett dropping 19.2 points per game on 35+ minutes each time.
- L10 games: 80% hit rate (8/10), maintaining his role even amid Toronto's recent skid.
- L20 games: 82% success (16/20), proving long-term reliability as a primary scorer.
"The Toronto Raptors have been one of the surprise teams of the NBA season. They are currently 17-12 and in fifth place in the Eastern Conference."
Matchup Analysis
The Warriors rank in the bottom 10 for points allowed to small forwards, surrendering 24.3 points per game to the position, with no prior H2H data against Barrett in this context. Golden State's perimeter defense focuses on stars like Curry, often leaving wings like Barrett in favorable isolation spots.
With Toronto projected for a high-paced game and total around 228 points, Barrett's expanded role amid trade rumors fuels his output. The Raptors' recent five losses in seven have meant more shots for him as they fight to regain momentum.
This prop is a lock based on Barrett's trends, volume, and the Warriors' defensive gaps.
RJ Barrett
TOR vs GSW
RJ Barrett - THREES OVER 1.5
RJ Barrett's outside shooting has heated up, surpassing 1.5 threes at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 70% in the last 10, and 71% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Barrett is hoisting 6.2 three-point attempts per game recently, connecting at a 38% rate, which aligns perfectly with the over line given his volume spike. His quick release and off-ball movement have turned him into a reliable long-range threat.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), draining 2.6 threes per game on elevated attempts.
- L10 games: 70% hit rate (7/10), with consistent 5+ attempts regardless of matchup.
- L20 games: 71% success (14/20), underscoring his growing perimeter reliability.
"After an earlier nine-game winning streak, Toronto has lost five of their last seven games."
Matchup Analysis
Golden State allows the third-most made threes to opposing wings at 2.4 per game, with their switch-heavy scheme vulnerable to shooters like Barrett; no H2H data exists, but the trends favor volume shooters.
Raptors' offense projects for 115+ points in this spot, with Barrett benefiting from spacing against a Warriors team prone to fouling and over-helping. Trade buzz around Toronto amplifies his usage in crucial games.
Barrett's three-point prop is primed to cash, backed by stats and situational edges.
RJ Barrett
TOR vs GSW