NBA Picks for Sunday, December 28, 2025: Carlton Carrington Threes, Payton Pritchard Assists Props to Target
Sunday, December 28, 2025, features a loaded NBA slate ripe for player props betting picks. With sharp angles on the board, we're honing in on Carlton Carrington to clear 1.5 threes versus the Grizzlies and Payton Pritchard to exceed 4.5 assists against the Trail Blazers. These NBA player props stand out due to elite recent hit rates and favorable matchups.
Carlton Carrington - THREES OVER 1.5
Carlton Carrington is draining threes at a rapid clip, clearing 1.5 threes at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 70% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Carrington boasts an average of 2.6 made threes over his last 10 outings on 6.8 attempts at a 38% clip, with his minutes steady at 28 MPG and volume spiking in Washington's up-tempo sets. This consistency positions him perfectly to exploit open looks.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with multiple 3+ performances including a 5-three explosion.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), maintaining volume despite role fluctuations.
- L20 games: 70% success (14/20), proving long-term reliability from deep.
"The new NBA 2K26 Player Ratings have dropped for the month of November, with players like Tyrese Maxey and many others receiving significant boosts to their OVR."
Matchup Analysis
The Grizzlies sit 24th in opponent three-pointers allowed per game at 14.8, struggling to contest perimeter shots due to injuries in their backcourt. No H2H data exists, but Memphis yields 37% opponent three-point shooting, a dream for Carrington's quick trigger.
Washington enters with momentum from a three-game win streak, projected game total at 228 points in a high-pace affair favoring shooters. Carrington's role expands against a Grizzlies squad allowing the 6th-most threes to opposing guards.
This prop is a lock based on Carrington's scorching trends and the Grizzlies' porous perimeter defense.
Carlton Carrington
WAS vs MEM
Payton Pritchard - ASSISTS OVER 4.5
Payton Pritchard is dishing dimes with precision, clearing 4.5 assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 80% in the last 10, and 60% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Pritchard is averaging 5.2 assists per game in his last 10 with 26 MPG off the Boston bench, facilitating at a 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio amid the Celtics' fluid offense. His playmaking surges in spot starts and high-minute rotations.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), highlighted by back-to-back 6+ assist outings.
- L10 games: 80% hit rate (8/10), consistent even in limited roles.
- L20 games: 60% success (12/20), solidifying his distributor reliability.
"Several other players on each team all received an adjustment to their OVR, and we’ll go over the biggest changes."
Matchup Analysis
Portland ranks 27th in opponent assists allowed at 27.2 per game, with their guards prone to overhelping and leaving drivers open for kick-outs. No H2H data, but the Blazers concede 1.4 assists per turnover to opposing playmakers, ideal for Pritchard's vision.
Boston rides a hot streak with a projected total of 232 points versus a porous Portland defense allowing the 4th-most points in the paint, creating assist opportunities galore. Pritchard thrives in these fast-break scenarios.
This prop is a lock based on Pritchard's distribution trends and the Trail Blazers' defensive lapses.
Payton Pritchard
BOS vs POR