NBA Picks for Wednesday, December 31, 2025: Stephon Castle Points + Assists & Wendell Carter Jr. Threes Props to Target
Wednesday, December 31, 2025, brings a packed NBA slate ripe for player prop betting picks. With New Year's Eve action heating up, savvy bettors should target high-value NBA player props like Stephon Castle's Points + Assists OVER 23.5 against the Knicks and Wendell Carter Jr.'s Threes OVER 0.5 versus the Pacers. These selections boast strong recent hit rates and favorable matchups, making them prime opportunities to cash in on today's games.
Stephon Castle - Points + Assists OVER 23.5
Stephon Castle has been on fire lately for the Spurs, consistently clearing the 23.5 Points + Assists line. He's hit this mark at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 80% across the last 20, showcasing his growing role as a key playmaker and scorer.
The Statistical Edge
Castle's usage has spiked with the Spurs leaning on their young talent, averaging north of 25 combined points and assists per game recently while logging 32+ minutes nightly. His efficiency from the field and assist numbers to teammates underline the consistency needed to smash this prop, especially as San Antonio's offense flows through him in high-pace games.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with Castle exploding for 24 points in his most recent outing against a stout Thunder defense.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), reflecting his expanded role amid the team's hot streak and minimal variance in production.
- L20 games: 80% success (16/20), proving long-term reliability even against varied opponents.
"Stephon Castle added 24 as the host San Antonio Spurs waylaid the Oklahoma City Thunder 130-110 on Tuesday."
Matchup Analysis
The Knicks present a middling matchup for guards, ranking in the bottom half of the league in points and assists allowed to opposing backcourts at 24.5 per game combined. With no H2H data available, New York's aggressive perimeter defense often leaves secondary creators like Castle in favorable spots to rack up assists through drive-and-kick opportunities.
San Antonio rides a scorching seven-game win streak into this contest after thumping OKC by 20, with Castle central to their high-octane attack projecting over 230 total points. This momentum favors volume plays, amplifying his chances in a potential track meet.
This prop is a lock based on Castle's trends, team form, and exploitable Knicks defense.
Wendell Carter Jr.
ORL vs IND
Wendell Carter Jr. - Threes OVER 0.5
Wendell Carter Jr. is stretching the floor effectively for Orlando, nailing at least one three in the majority of recent outings to clear the 0.5 Threes line. He's cashed this prop at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Carter's three-point volume has climbed to 3.2 attempts per game over the last 10 contests, connecting at a 38% rate while playing 28+ minutes as the Magic's starting center. His improved spacing and quick release make this an increasingly dependable prop in Orlando's modernized offense.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), including multiple games with 2+ threes amid heightened usage.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), bolstered by consistent minutes and shot creation in the half-court set.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), highlighting solid long-term floor despite occasional quiet nights.
"The host Orlando Magic beat the Denver Nuggets 127-126 on Saturday night, overcoming another triple-double by Nikola Jokic."
Matchup Analysis
Indiana's defense leaks threes to bigs, surrendering 1.8 makes per game to opposing centers, which plays perfectly into Carter's skill set. No H2H data exists, but the Pacers' switch-heavy scheme often leaves shooters like him open from beyond the arc on pick-and-pop actions.
The Magic enter off a thrilling escape against Denver, maintaining their playoff push with a potent offense projecting 225+ total points. Carter's role in spacing the floor remains crucial, especially against Indy’s up-tempo style that generates extra possessions.
This prop is primed to hit given Carter's hot streak and Indiana's vulnerabilities.
Stephon Castle
SAS vs NYK