NBA Picks for Sunday, January 18, 2026: Trey Murphy III Threes & Points Props to Target
Sunday, January 18, 2026, brings prime NBA betting opportunities with player props heating up across the league. New Orleans Pelicans wing Trey Murphy III stands out against the Houston Rockets, offering two high-value props: threes made over 2.5 and points over 20.5. These picks leverage his scorching recent form and a favorable matchup.
Trey Murphy III - Threes Over 2.5
Trey Murphy III has been lighting it up from deep lately, consistently clearing 2.5 threes at a 100% clip over his last 5 games and 100% in the last 10. Even looking at the broader sample, he hits this mark at a solid 50% across the last 20, showcasing his growing role as New Orleans' top perimeter threat.
The Statistical Edge
Murphy's volume and efficiency from beyond the arc make this prop a standout NBA player prop bet. He's averaging 4.2 threes per game over his last 10 outings on 12.5 attempts, with usage spiking due to increased minutes around 35 per game. The consistency in his shooting stroke positions him perfectly against Houston's leaky perimeter defense.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with at least 3 threes in every contest, averaging 4.6 makes.
- L10 games: 100% hit rate (10/10), maintaining elite volume amid steady starter minutes.
- L20 games: 50% success (10/20), reliable when healthy and featured in the offense.
"Pacers want to see more progress against woeful Pelicans: The Indiana Pacers look to close out a four-game homestand on a high note Friday when they welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to Indianapolis."
Matchup Analysis
Houston ranks 25th in opponent three-point percentage allowed at 37.2%, struggling to contest wings like Murphy who thrive off the catch-and-shoot. No H2H data exists this season, but the Rockets concede the 4th-most threes to small forwards, amplifying his deep-ball opportunities.
New Orleans enters with momentum after recent tweaks, pushing for more scoring punch amid a soft schedule spot. Projected game total sits at 228.5, favoring pace-up scenarios where Murphy's green light shines brightest.
This threes over 2.5 prop is a lock based on his trends, volume, and Houston's defensive woes.
Trey Murphy III
NOP vs HOU
Trey Murphy III - Points Over 20.5
Trey Murphy III is surging as a scoring force, smashing 20.5 points at a 100% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 70% across the last 20. His expanded usage has turned him into the Pelicans' go-to option.
The Statistical Edge
With scoring distributed thinly in New Orleans, Murphy's averaging 24.8 points over the last 10 on 18.2 field goal attempts and 38 minutes per night. His blend of threes, drives, and free throws ensures steady output, making this one of the top NBA player props today.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), exploding for 25+ points each time with heavy shot creation.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), thriving despite one off-night in a blowout.
- L20 games: 70% success (14/20), proving long-term reliability in key matchups.
"Pacers want to see more progress against woeful Pelicans: The Indiana Pacers look to close out a four-game homestand on a high note Friday when they welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to Indianapolis."
Matchup Analysis
The Rockets allow the 8th-most points to opposing wings at 23.4 per game, with poor closeouts leading to easy buckets inside the arc. Absent H2H stats, Houston's 116.8 defensive rating over the last 10 games spells trouble for containing Murphy's versatile attack.
Pelicans' recent coaching emphasis on star wings aligns with a revenge spot after early-season stumbles, projecting Murphy for peak involvement in a high-total affair at 228.5.
This points over 20.5 prop is primed to cash given his form and the Rockets' vulnerabilities.
Trey Murphy III
NOP vs HOU