NBA Picks for Wednesday, March 11, 2026: Trey Murphy III Assists & Points + Assists Props to Target
Wednesday, March 11, 2026, brings exciting NBA action, including the New Orleans Pelicans hosting the Toronto Raptors, offering sharp betting opportunities in NBA player props. With Trey Murphy III emerging as a key facilitator and scorer for New Orleans, we're zeroing in on two high-confidence props: his assists over 3.5 and points + assists over 24.5. These picks are backed by scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchup dynamics.
Trey Murphy III - ASSISTS OVER 3.5
Trey Murphy III has been dishing the ball at a high clip lately, clearing 3.5 assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 70% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Murphy's assist numbers have surged with expanded ball-handling duties amid New Orleans' fluid offense, averaging 4.6 assists over his last 10 outings while logging 34+ minutes per game. His consistency stems from improved playmaking vision, turning drives into kick-outs effectively against rotating defenses.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with multiple games of 5+ assists in wins where he facilitated secondary scoring.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), showcasing role elevation with consistent 4-6 assist outputs amid lineup tweaks.
- L20 games: 70% success (14/20), reliable long-term as a connector in high-pace games.
"Trey Murphy III sumó 21 puntos, mientras que Saddiq Bey encestó 6 de 11 disparos"
Matchup Analysis
The Raptors rank in the bottom 10 for opponent assists allowed to wings, surrendering 4.2 assists per game to similar players due to sluggish perimeter rotations. No H2H data exists, but Toronto's 27th-ranked defense against pick-and-roll ball-handlers plays into Murphy's strengths.
Pelicans enter on a hot streak after a 133-123 rout of the Kings, where Murphy flashed scoring and playmaking. With Zion Williamson drawing attention, expect Murphy to exploit high projected total of 228.5 points in a fast-paced affair.
This prop is a lock based on trends and Toronto's defensive lapses.
Trey Murphy III
NOP vs TOR
Trey Murphy III - POINTS_ASSISTS OVER 24.5
Trey Murphy III continues to pile up combined production, surpassing 24.5 points + assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Blending scoring efficiency with assist growth, Murphy averages 22.3 points + 4.8 assists (27.1 combined) in his last 10, thriving in 36-minute roles with 45%+ FG from deep range. His dual-threat usage spikes in favorable paces, making this prop highly consistent.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), exploding for 28+ combined in recent victories with elevated shot volume.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), steady as usage rises to 25%+ without Zion dominating.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), proven reliability in varied game scripts.
"Trey Murphy III sumó 21 puntos"
Matchup Analysis
Toronto's perimeter defense leaks points to shooters like Murphy, allowing 26.8 points + assists to small forwards league-wide (22nd). Absent H2H, their 29th-ranked efficiency against three-level scorers favors his combo output.
Building on the Kings blowout momentum, New Orleans' offense projects 118+ points, amplifying Murphy's touches in a revenge spot against a Raptors squad struggling on the road.
Trends and context make this prop an absolute smash play.
Trey Murphy III
NOP vs TOR
