NBA Picks for Tuesday, February 10, 2026: Collin Gillespie THREES & Jaxson Hayes POINTS Props to Target
Tuesday, February 10, 2026, brings a loaded NBA slate packed with prime betting opportunities in NBA player props. Sports bettors should zero in on Collin Gillespie of the Phoenix Suns clearing 2.5 threes against the Dallas Mavericks and Jaxson Hayes of the Los Angeles Lakers surpassing 4.5 points versus the San Antonio Spurs. These picks stand out due to scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchups.
Collin Gillespie - THREES OVER 2.5
Collin Gillespie has been on fire from beyond the arc lately, clearing 2.5 threes at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 70% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Collin Gillespie's recent shooting surge highlights his reliability as a deep threat, averaging 3.4 threes per game over his last 10 outings while playing 28 minutes nightly in Phoenix's rotation. His consistency stems from improved shot selection and volume, making this prop a strong play against a Mavericks squad vulnerable to perimeter shooting.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with 3.6 threes per game on 7.2 attempts amid increased green light from coach.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), showing locked-in role with steady minutes despite back-to-back schedules.
- L20 games: 70% success (14/20), proving long-term reliability even in tougher defensive schemes.
"Collin Gillespie is emerging as Phoenix's most dependable sniper from deep this season."
Matchup Analysis
The Mavericks rank in the bottom 10 for opponent three-point percentage allowed at 37.2%, often leaving shooters open due to aggressive help defense inside. No H2H data exists, but Dallas's perimeter lapses play right into Gillespie's strengths as a catch-and-shoot specialist.
Phoenix enters on a hot streak with back-to-back wins, projecting a high-scoring affair over 225 total points given both teams' pace. Gillespie's usage spikes in these spots, amplifying his three-point volume.
This prop is a lock based on trends and Dallas's defensive weaknesses.
Collin Gillespie
PHX vs DAL
Jaxson Hayes - POINTS OVER 4.5
Jaxson Hayes is delivering consistent scoring off the bench, clearing 4.5 points at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Hayes has solidified his role with the Lakers, averaging 6.2 points on 2.8 field goals per game recently while logging 15 minutes per contest. His efficiency around the rim, at 68% FG, underscores the prop's value in limited but productive minutes.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), with 7.0 points average including putbacks and lobs in transition.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), boosted by expanded role amid frontcourt injuries.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), reliable even against physical bigs.
"Jaxson Hayes has been getting more minutes lately, providing a spark off the Lakers' bench."
Matchup Analysis
San Antonio's frontcourt ranks 25th in points allowed to opposing centers at 12.4 per game, struggling with rebounding and paint protection. Hayes is 50% (1/2) in H2H games, exploiting similar mismatches.
Lakers are pushing tempo in recent wins, with a projected total around 228 points favoring inside scoring. Hayes thrives in these fast-paced games with easy buckets near the hoop.
This prop is primed to cash given Hayes's form and the Spurs' vulnerabilities.
Jaxson Hayes
LAL vs SAS
