NBA Picks for Wednesday, February 11, 2026: Ty Jerome Threes & Joel Embiid Points + Rebounds Props to Target
Wednesday, February 11, 2026, brings another thrilling NBA slate packed with betting opportunities in player props. SportsEdges.com highlights two standout NBA player props to target: Ty Jerome's threes made over 1.5 as the Grizzlies face the Nuggets, and Joel Embiid's points plus rebounds over 36.5 in the Sixers' matchup against the Knicks. These picks are backed by scorching recent trends and favorable contexts for confident bets.
Ty Jerome - THREES OVER 1.5
Ty Jerome has been lights-out from beyond the arc lately, clearing 1.5 threes at a perfect 100% clip over his last 5 games, 100% in the last 10, and 100% across the last 20. His increased role in the Memphis backcourt has unlocked consistent deep shooting volume.
The Statistical Edge
Jerome's sharpshooting surge is no fluke, with elevated minutes and green light from coach Taylor Jenkins fueling his output. He's averaging 3.2 threes per game over the last 20 at a 45% clip, attempting 6.8 shots from deep thanks to his spot-up prowess in Memphis' motion offense. This consistency makes the 1.5 line a steal against a Denver defense vulnerable to guards.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with 3.6 threes per game on 7.2 attempts at 50% efficiency amid heavy usage.
- L10 games: 100% hit rate (10/10), maintaining volume even in tighter defensive schemes, averaging 12.4 points off threes.
- L20 games: 100% success (20/20), showcasing elite reliability as his minutes stabilized above 28 per game.
"James Harden won in his debut with Cleveland, as he and Donovan Mitchell combined to score the Cavaliers' final 16 points for a 132-126 victory on Saturday night."
Matchup Analysis
The Nuggets rank in the bottom 10 for threes allowed to shooting guards, surrendering 15.2 per game to the position, which plays right into Jerome's hands. No H2H data exists, but Denver's perimeter defense has slipped post-All-Star break, giving up 38% shooting from deep to opponents like Memphis.
Grizzlies enter with momentum, leaning on shooters like Jerome amid Ja Morant's potential load management in a back-to-back set. Projected game total sits at 228.5, favoring pace and volume for Memphis' offense against a Nuggets squad allowing 120 points to visiting teams recently.
This prop is a lock based on Jerome's trends and Denver's defensive lapses.
Ty Jerome
MEM vs DEN
Joel Embiid - POINTS_REBOUNDS OVER 36.5
Joel Embiid dominates the glass and scoring column, smashing 36.5 points plus rebounds at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, though dipping to 55% across the last 20 due to minor rest. His MVP form returns with Philly pushing for seeding.
The Statistical Edge
Embiid's two-way dominance shines through 32.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game lately, logging 34.6 minutes with elite usage. The Knicks struggle containing bigs inside, amplifying his double-double potential in this rivalry tilt.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), posting 38.2 combined average including a 40-point, 15-rebound explosion.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), thriving post-injury with rebounding spikes versus weaker fronts.
- L20 games: 55% success (11/20), still elite long-term as minutes and efficiency hold at 55% FG.
"NBA roundup: James Harden makes triumphant debut as Cavs down Kings: (Photo credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images) James Harden won in his debut with Cleveland..."
Matchup Analysis
New York ranks middle-of-the-pack defending power forwards but yields 12.8 rebounds per game to the position, with 50% H2H hit rate for Embiid in 2 games. Knicks' frontcourt rotation fatigues late, ripe for Embiid's board-crashing.
Sixers boast home-court edge in this heated rivalry, projected total of 225 points signaling high usage for Philly's star. Recent coaching tweaks emphasize Embiid's paint presence against a Knicks team allowing 52 points in the paint lately.
Embiid's prop sails over 36.5 with matchup advantages and form aligning perfectly.
Joel Embiid
PHI vs NYK