NBA Picks for Thursday, February 19, 2026: Jalen Suggs Assists, Jabari Smith Jr. Threes Props to Target
Thursday, February 19, 2026, brings a packed NBA slate loaded with prime betting opportunities in NBA player props. Bettors should zero in on Jalen Suggs to clear OVER 5.5 assists against the Sacramento Kings and Jabari Smith Jr. to exceed OVER 1.5 threes versus the Charlotte Hornets. These picks stand out due to scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchups.
Jalen Suggs - ASSISTS OVER 5.5
Jalen Suggs has been dishing dimes at a high clip, clearing 5.5 assists at a 100% rate over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 55% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Suggs has elevated his playmaking role within the Orlando Magic offense, averaging 6.8 assists per game over his last 10 outings while logging 34.2 minutes nightly. His consistency in facilitating for teammates like Paolo Banchero has turned this prop into a reliable target, especially as he exploits transition opportunities.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with averages of 7.2 assists including two double-digit assist efforts.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), bolstered by increased usage after minor lineup tweaks.
- L20 games: 55% success (11/20), showing long-term reliability despite occasional off-nights.
"Orlando's backcourt has been clicking, with Suggs stepping up as the primary distributor."
Matchup Analysis
The Sacramento Kings rank in the bottom 10 for assists allowed to opposing guards, surrendering 28.4 assists per game to point guards this season. With no H2H data available, Suggs faces a defense that struggles to contain pick-and-roll ball-handlers, setting him up for easy assists.
Orlando enters with momentum from a recent win streak, projecting a fast-paced game with a total around 225 points. This context amplifies Suggs' opportunities in a half-court set heavy on motion offense.
This prop is a lock based on Suggs' trends, volume, and the Kings' defensive lapses.
Jalen Suggs
ORL vs SAC
Jabari Smith Jr. - THREES OVER 1.5
Jabari Smith Jr. is heating up from deep, clearing 1.5 threes at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 65% across the last 20.
The Statistical Edge
Smith Jr. has embraced a green-light role in Houston's spacing-heavy system, attempting 6.4 threes per game over his last 10 while shooting 39.2% from beyond the arc. His improved shot selection and catch-and-shoot efficiency make this prop a standout.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), draining at least 2 threes in four straight before a quiet night.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), with volume spiking amid roster health.
- L20 games: 65% success (13/20), underscoring his growing reliability as a floor-spacer.
"Kawhi Leonard completed a tiebreaking three-point play with two seconds remaining to lift the visiting Los Angeles Clippers to a 105-102 comeback victory over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday."
Matchup Analysis
Charlotte ranks dead last in opponent three-point percentage allowed at 38.2%, coughing up 15.6 made threes per game to forwards. No H2H data exists, but the Hornets' perimeter defense invites volume shooters like Smith Jr. to feast.
Coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Clippers, Houston projects for a bounce-back with a total near 230 points, emphasizing Smith's green light from coach Ime Udoka in revenge scenarios.
This prop is primed to cash given Smith Jr.'s form and Charlotte's porous defense.
Jabari Smith Jr.
HOU vs CHA
