NBA Picks for Tuesday, March 24, 2026: Sam Merrill Assists & Jalen Brunson Assists Props to Target
Tuesday, March 24, 2026, brings a packed NBA slate loaded with prime betting opportunities in NBA player props. We're targeting two standout assists props: Sam Merrill OVER 1.5 assists for the Cavaliers against the Magic, and Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 assists for the Knicks versus the Pelicans. These picks leverage recent hot streaks and favorable matchups for confident edges tonight.
Sam Merrill - ASSISTS OVER 1.5
Sam Merrill has been on fire facilitating lately, clearing 1.5 assists at a 100% clip over his last 5 games, 100% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20. The Cavaliers sharpshooter is stepping up his playmaking role amid Cleveland's push for the top seed.
The Statistical Edge
Merrill's assist numbers have surged with increased minutes off the bench, averaging 2.6 assists per game over his last 10 outings while playing 24+ minutes consistently. His usage in spot-up situations has led to more kick-outs to teammates, boosting reliability for this low line.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with at least 2 assists each time including a 4-assist outing against a fast-paced foe.
- L10 games: 100% hit rate (10/10), maintaining steady involvement even in blowouts as Cleveland's primary perimeter distributor.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), showing long-term reliability despite occasional off-nights in low-possession games.
"In this episode of the Wine and Gold Talk podcast, Ethan Sands and Chris Fedor focus on the benefits of a four-day practice break, which has allowed the team to rest, recover from injuries, and build chemistry with new acquisitions."
Matchup Analysis
The Magic rank in the bottom 10 for assists allowed to opposing guards, surrendering 8.2 per game to the position due to their aggressive help defense that leaves shooters open for kick-outs. No H2H data exists, but Orlando's perimeter vulnerabilities play right into Merrill's strengths.
Cleveland enters fresh off a practice break, with enhanced chemistry poised for a high-output game projected at 225+ total points. This rest has Merrill dialed in for secondary creation.
This prop is a lock based on Merrill's streak and the Magic's defensive gaps.
Sam Merrill
CLE vs ORL
Jalen Brunson - ASSISTS OVER 6.5
Jalen Brunson continues to orchestrate the Knicks offense, surpassing 6.5 assists at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 70% across the last 20. As New York's floor general, he's thriving in high-usage roles.
The Statistical Edge
Brunson's playmaking peaks with 7.8 assists average over the last 10 games, correlating to 36+ minutes and pick-and-roll mastery that generates easy dimes. His consistency shines against zone looks, making this line very hittable.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), highlighted by double-digit assists twice amid elevated ball-handling duties.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), with role stability post-injury reinforcing his command of the offense.
- L20 games: 70% success (14/20), proving durable long-term even through tough defensive schemes.
"The New York Knicks play the Utah Jazz on March 11 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The team is trying to end a two-game losing streak and will likely have its captain and starting point guard available."
Matchup Analysis
New Orleans struggles containing point guards, allowing 9.1 assists per game to the position thanks to switch-heavy schemes that Brunson exploits with drives and passes. Absent H2H data, the Pels' pace-up tempo favors extra possessions for dimes.
The Knicks are battle-tested coming off recent action, with Brunson fully ramped up and projecting a competitive 228-point total that demands his distribution.
Brunson's prop sails over based on trends and matchup edges.
Jalen Brunson
NYK vs NOP
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