NBA Picks for Saturday, January 3, 2026: Donte DiVincenzo Rebounds + Assists, Kevin Durant Threes Props to Target
Saturday, January 3, 2026, brings a stacked NBA slate loaded with prime betting opportunities in NBA player props. Bettors should zero in on Donte DiVincenzo's REBOUNDS_ASSISTS OVER 8.5 against the Miami Heat and Kevin Durant's THREES OVER 1.5 versus the Dallas Mavericks. These picks stand out based on scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchups, making them must-targets for sharp NBA betting picks today.
Donte DiVincenzo - REBOUNDS_ASSISTS OVER 8.5
Donte DiVincenzo has been a rebounding and passing machine lately for the Timberwolves, clearing 8.5 rebounds + assists at a scorching 100% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 65% across the last 20. His expanded role off the bench has unlocked consistent double-digit contributions in these combined stats.
The Statistical Edge
DiVincenzo's versatility shines in Minnesota's fast-paced system, where he's averaging 4.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game over the last 10 outings, often playing 32+ minutes in key matchups. This consistency against the prop line stems from his hustle on the glass and playmaking in transition, making the OVER a reliable bet even in tougher defensive schemes.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with DiVincenzo posting 10+ combined in four straight, fueled by 5+ rebounds each time.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), showing steady role even amid minor lineup tweaks, averaging 9.1 RA.
- L20 games: 65% success (13/20), proving long-term reliability as a secondary facilitator behind the stars.
"As befits one of the crown jewels of the NBA's calendar, this year's Christmas slate featured almost all of the best teams in the league."
Matchup Analysis
The Heat rank in the bottom 10 for opponent rebounds + assists allowed to shooting guards, surrendering 9.2 per game to the position, with no specific H2H data against DiVincenzo to deter this trend. Miami's switch-heavy defense leaves wings like him free for boards and dishes in transition.
Minnesota enters with momentum post-Christmas, where contender teams like the Timberwolves showcased title hope amid a grueling slate, projecting a high-paced game with 225+ total points. DiVincenzo thrives in these spots, logging heavy minutes against depleted Miami frontcourts.
This prop is a lock based on DiVincenzo's trends, role stability, and the Heat's vulnerabilities.
Donte DiVincenzo
MIN vs MIA
Kevin Durant - THREES OVER 1.5
Kevin Durant is draining triples at an elite clip for Houston, exceeding 1.5 threes at an 80% rate over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 75% across the last 20. His improved volume from deep has been a game-changer in the Rockets' spacing-heavy offense.
The Statistical Edge
Durant's shooting stroke remains lethal, hitting 2.8 threes per game on 42% efficiency over the last 10 games, with 6+ attempts nightly as Houston leans on his perimeter gravity. This surge reflects better ball movement and his post-Christmas hot hand, sustaining the OVER through varied defensive looks.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), including 3+ threes in three contests amid increased usage.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), with consistent 5+ attempts highlighting his central role.
- L20 games: 75% success (15/20), underscoring long-term reliability from beyond the arc.
"NBA Christmas games: What should give 10 teams title hope, concerns: As befits one of the crown jewels of the NBA's calendar, this year's Christmas slate featured almost all of the best teams in the league."
Matchup Analysis
Dallas ranks 22nd in threes allowed to small forwards, giving up 2.4 makes per game while playing at a top-5 pace that boosts possessions; Durant hits this prop at 50% in 2 H2H games. The Mavs' perimeter defense falters against elite shooters like KD in pick-and-pop sets.
The Rockets carry strong momentum from holiday showcases, where teams like Houston turned concerns into hope via star performances, setting up a revenge spot against Dallas with 230+ projected total. Durant's volume should spike in this rivalry.
Durant's threes OVER 1.5 is primed to cash given his form and the Mavericks' leaky defense.
Kevin Durant
HOU vs DAL