NBA Picks for Sunday, February 22, 2026: Collin Murray-Boyles OVER 0.5 Blocks, Evan Mobley OVER 12.5 Points Props to Target
Sunday, February 22, 2026, brings a packed NBA slate loaded with prime betting opportunities in player props. We're targeting Collin Murray-Boyles OVER 0.5 blocks when the Raptors face the Bucks and Evan Mobley OVER 12.5 points as the Cavaliers take on the Thunder. These picks stand out based on scorching recent hit rates and favorable matchups post-trade deadline chaos.
Collin Murray-Boyles - BLOCKS OVER 0.5
Collin Murray-Boyles has been a rim-protecting force lately for Toronto, consistently clearing the 0.5 blocks line. He's notched at least one block in 100% of his last 5 games, 100% over the last 10, and 80% across the last 20, showcasing his defensive upside in an expanded role.
The Statistical Edge
Murray-Boyles is averaging 1.2 blocks per game over his last 10 outings while logging 28 minutes nightly, a jump tied to Toronto's frontcourt tweaks amid trade deadline moves. His consistency against smaller lineups has made this prop a reliable bet, with rejection rates spiking in recent starts.
- L5 games: 100% hit rate (5/5), with multiple blocks in four straight amid increased defensive assignments.
- L10 games: 100% hit rate (10/10), thriving in a bigger role post-roster changes for steady court time.
- L20 games: 80% success (16/20), proving long-term reliability even in tougher defensive schemes.
"Raptors slip out of top 10 in final Power Rankings before trade deadline: The 2026 NBA trade deadline (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET) is one day away, with a flurry of blockbuster deals already beginning..."
Matchup Analysis
The Bucks rank in the bottom 10 for opponent paint points allowed, vulnerable to athletic bigs like Murray-Boyles who exploit drives. No H2H data exists, but Milwaukee's reliance on perimeter play leaves the rim exposed, boosting block chances against their 15th-ranked defense versus blocks.
Post-trade deadline, Toronto's slipping standings have prompted more minutes for young defenders like Murray-Boyles, especially versus Milwaukee's high-paced attack projected for a 228 total. Raptors coaching adjustments favor his swat potential in this spot.
This prop is a lock based on trends, role stability, and Milwaukee's defensive gaps.
Collin Murray-Boyles
TOR vs MIL
Evan Mobley - POINTS OVER 12.5
Evan Mobley is heating up offensively for Cleveland, surpassing 12.5 points with efficiency. He's cashed this prop at an 80% clip over his last 5 games, 90% in the last 10, and 85% across the last 20, fueled by improved spacing and usage.
The Statistical Edge
Mobley is posting 14.8 points per game on 62% shooting lately, benefiting from 32 minutes per night as Cleveland integrates new pieces. His mid-range and cut scoring have surged, making the over a strong play in high-volume scenarios.
- L5 games: 80% hit rate (4/5), exploding for 15+ in three with better ball movement.
- L10 games: 90% hit rate (9/10), consistent scoring amid lineup shifts for peak reliability.
- L20 games: 85% success (17/20), solid long-term track record against varied defenses.
"James Harden’s exit from the LA Clippers to the Cleveland Cavaliers" – injecting elite spacing for bigs like Mobley in the post-deadline era.
Matchup Analysis
OKC sits 20th in defending power forwards' points, struggling to contain cutters like Mobley who feast inside. No H2H data, but Thunder's switch-heavy scheme concedes 1.15 points per possession to bigs, aligning perfectly for his scoring prop.
Cleveland's blockbuster Harden addition creates elite spacing, elevating Mobley's efficiency in a game scripted for 225+ total points. Post-deadline momentum has Cavs leaning on his interior attack versus OKC's thinner frontcourt.
This prop screams value with Mobley's form, Harden's impact, and OKC's weaknesses making it a can't-miss target.
Evan Mobley
CLE vs OKC
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